Qualification Scenarios: Royals through, LSG on the ropes
Delhi Capitals’ win over LSG on Tuesday has ensured Rajasthan Royals became the second side to qualify for the IPL 2024 playoffs after the washout in Ahmedabad on Monday (May 13) assured KKR of a top-two finish. After 64 games, Titans, MI and PBKS have all been eliminated with five sides battling it out for the last two spots up for grabs.
Points Table After Match: 64
| Team | Matches | Wins | Losses | No Result | Points | NRR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KKR (Q) | 13 | 9 | 3 | 1 | 19 | 1.428 |
| RR (Q) | 12 | 8 | 4 | 0 | 16 | 0.349 |
| CSK | 13 | 7 | 6 | 0 | 14 | 0.528 |
| SRH | 12 | 7 | 5 | 0 | 14 | 0.406 |
| DC | 14 | 7 | 7 | 0 | 14 | -0.377 |
| RCB | 13 | 6 | 7 | 0 | 12 | 0.387 |
| LSG | 13 | 6 | 7 | 0 | 12 | -0.787 |
| GT (E) | 13 | 5 | 7 | 1 | 11 | -1.063 |
| MI (E) | 13 | 4 | 9 | 0 | 8 | -0.271 |
| PBKS (E) | 12 | 4 | 8 | 0 | 8 | -0.423 |
SRH
SRH are best placed of the five sides in contention with 14 points, a healthy NRR (+0.406) and two home games in hand against the bottom dwellers GT and PBKS. A win would ensure a playoff berth while two wins will also give them a shot at a top-two finish, provided RR win no more than one of their games left and don’t surpass SRH on NRR in case of a tie on 18-points between the two sides. They can even go through with two defeats that don’t do undue damage to NRR, provided CSK beat RCB or RCB beat CSK by a big enough margin so that CSK’s NRR falls below that of SRH.
CSK
CSK are the biggest beneficiaries of Tuesday’s result in Delhi. A win against RCB will ensure them a top-four finish and possibly even a berth in Qualifier 1, if RR lose both their matches or SRH win a maximum of one game with their NRR staying below that of CSK. The other advantage for CSK, thanks to DC’s win over LSG is that they can even afford to go through with a defeat to RCB provided they keep their NRR ahead of RCB should SRH reach or go past 16 points. For CSK to guarantee a superior NRR to RCB even after a defeat, they have to ensure RCB chase down the target in 18.1 overs or more or win by no more than 17 runs (provided side batting first score 200).
RCB
Down in the dumps with seven defeats in the first eight games, RCB have stormed back to contention with a playoffs spot very much in sight. If SRH lose both their two matches left, a win over CSK should be sufficient for RCB given their strong NRR (even if SRH lose both their matches by one run each and RCB beat CSK by one run or off the last ball). If SRH manage to win at least one, then RCB would not only have to beat CSK but also have to ensure they finish on a higher NRR than CSK (refer the exact scenario under CSK section).
DC
A win in the final match against LSG has kept the Capitals alive, mathematically at least. Given their extremely poor NRR, the only outside chance of them qualifying is if CSK beat RCB, SRH lose both their remaining matches by big enough margins and LSG either lose to MI or win but keep their NRR below that of DC. In that case CSK will get to 16 points while DC, LSG and SRH all will end on 14 each (and RCB stay on 12). Having said that, SRH has to lose their last two games by a combined margin of 194 runs for their NRR to fall below that of DC (after conceding 200 each).
LSG
Things looked brighter for LSG a fortnight ago with 12 points and four matches in hand. Three successive defeats, two by thumping margins, in their last three matches have derailed their progress and the last one against DC in Delhi is almost a knockout blow. Like DC, the only scenario for them to qualify is if they get the better of MI, CSK beat RCB, SRH lose two games by big margins. In that case there will be a three way tie on 14 points between LSG, SRH and DC. For LSG to surpass DC’s NRR, they have to beat MI by 94 runs and then hope SRH lose their two games by a combined margin of around 194 runs (presuming sides batting first score 200 in each of the instances).
